June 14, 2024
65 month liquidity cycle


In an analysis shared via X, renowned crypto analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) has provided compelling evidence to support his assertion that the current Bitcoin bull run is far from over. Ted’s insights are based on four critical indicators related to traditional finance and crypto liquidity, each pointing to sustained growth in the near future. Here’s a breakdown of his analysis:

#1 65-Month Liquidity Cycle

Ted highlights the 65-month liquidity cycle, a historical pattern that marks the ebb and flow of liquidity in financial markets. According to his analysis, this cycle bottomed out in October 2023, signaling the beginning of a new expansion phase.

“We are now in the expansion phase, which is expected to peak in 2026,” Ted stated. This projection aligns with the anticipated easing by central banks in response to slowing economic data over the next 18 to 24 months. Historically, increased liquidity has been a precursor to bull markets in various asset classes, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem.

65 month liquidity cycle
65 month liquidity cycle | Source: @tedtalksmacro

#2 M2 Money Supply

The M2 money supply, which includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money, is another crucial indicator, if not the most important indicator of global liquidity. Ted notes that the rate of expansion in the M2 money supply is at its lowest since the 1990s.

“There is plenty of room to the upside for easing liquidity conditions,” he explained. As central banks potentially ease monetary policies to stimulate economies, increased M2 growth could lead to more capital flowing into risk assets like Bitcoin.

M2 money supply
M2 money supply | Source: @tedtalksmacro

#3 Crypto Liquidity

While liquidity has returned to the crypto markets, particularly with the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Ted points out that the velocity of inflows has not yet reached the levels seen at cycle tops. “The velocity of inflow has not yet seen a manic phase consistent with cycle tops,” he noted.

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This suggests that while interest and investment in Bitcoin are growing, the market has not yet reached the speculative frenzy that typically precedes a major correction. This phase of measured inflow can provide a more stable foundation for continued price increases.

Crypto liquidity
Crypto liquidity | Source: @tedtalksmacro

#4 Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows

The US based spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows, with last week alone witnessing $950 million flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, the largest net inflow since March. Ted expects these inflows to increase as Bitcoin’s price rises and traditional finance investors regain confidence in the asset.

“Expect these to only increase as price drifts higher and tradFi once again renew faith in the asset,” he stated. The growing acceptance and investment from institutional investors via ETFs are a strong bullish indicator for Bitcoin’s continued ascent.

Bitcoin ETF flows
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows | Source: @tedtalksmacro

Each of these factors points to a sustained and robust bull market for Bitcoin. Ted’s analysis, grounded in traditional financial indicators and crypto-specific data, provides a comprehensive outlook on the current and future state of the Bitcoin market. As central banks potentially ease monetary policies and institutional interest continues to grow, the conditions appear ripe for Bitcoin’s bull run to extend well into the coming years.

At press time, BTC traded at $66,602.

Bitcoin price
BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com



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